With the decline of offensive rebounding in recent years we can assume this means second chance scoring is declining as well. Since offensive efficiency is on the rise, this means that efficiency excluding second chance points must be increasing to an even larger degree. I decided to split up second chance points from other points to look at trends in recent years. For lack of a better term I have called these first chance points, where first chance points and second chance points sum up to total points. If someone can come up with a better name for these let me know. Here are the yearly trends in these stats as well as Second Chance ORtg (second chance points per 100 second chance possessions).
| Season | ORtg | First Chance Points per 100 Possessions | Second Chance Points per 100 Possessions | Second Chance ORtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001-02 | 104.3 | 89.1 | 15.2 | 114.9 |
| 2002-03 | 103.3 | 88.4 | 14.9 | 114.6 |
| 2003-04 | 102.5 | 87.8 | 14.8 | 112.5 |
| 2004-05 | 105.7 | 90.8 | 14.9 | 115.0 |
| 2005-06 | 106.1 | 91.8 | 14.3 | 116.1 |
| 2006-07 | 106.5 | 92.3 | 14.2 | 117.4 |
| 2007-08 | 107.4 | 93.2 | 14.2 | 117.0 |
| 2008-09 | 108.2 | 93.9 | 14.3 | 117.7 |
| 2009-10 | 107.8 | 93.5 | 14.3 | 119.1 |
| 2010-11 | 107.5 | 93.3 | 14.2 | 117.3 |
| 2011-12 | 104.6 | 90.3 | 14.4 | 115.1 |
| 2012-13 | 105.9 | 91.6 | 14.3 | 116.1 |
| 2013-14 | 106.8 | 92.9 | 13.9 | 116.8 |
| 2014-15 | 105.9 | 91.9 | 14.0 | 116.7 |
| 2015-16 | 106.7 | 93.4 | 13.2 | 117.0 |
| 2016-17 | 109.3 | 96.0 | 13.3 | 119.1 |
| 2017-18 | 109.3 | 96.5 | 12.8 | 117.9 |
These stats can all up looked up on pbpstats.com , first chance points in the Misc table , second chance stats in the Second Chance Stats table .
The Steve Nash/Mike D’Antoni Suns were ahead of their time
In the 6 seasons from 2004-05 to 2009-10, the Suns had the 6 best first chance points per 100 possession seasons. Their top mark in 2006-07 of 102.3 has only been topped since by the Warriors, in each of the last three seasons, and the Rockets last season. Here’s how the Suns offense broke down in each of those seasons:
| Season | ORtg (Rank) | First Chance Points per 100 Possessions (Rank) | Second Chance Points per 100 Possessions (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-05 | 114.0 (1) | 99.5 (1) | 14.5 (20) |
| 2005-06 | 111.6 (1) | 100.3 (1) | 11.3 (30) |
| 2006-07 | 114.3 (1) | 102.3 (1) | 12.0 (29) |
| 2007-08 | 113.4 (2) | 102.2 (1) | 11.2 (30) |
| 2008-09 | 113.8 (1) | 100.4 (1) | 13.5 (22) |
| 2009-10 | 115.6 (1) | 101.1 (1) | 14.5 (15) |
These numbers were really out of place at the time, they were typically 2-3 points better than the second best team in first chance points per 100 possessions, but they match right up with the best offenses of the last few seasons.
Imagine Steven Adams on the Warriors
The 2017-18 Warriors had the most first chance points per 100 possessions (104.0) in the 17 seasons I looked at. They also scored the fewest second chance points per 100 possessions (10.4) in that timespan. Given that offensive rebounding is at an all time low and offensive efficiency is near an all time high, it’s probably safe to assume these are the highest and lowest values respectively of all time. When you are already an elite offense, it’s hard to find ways to get better, but imagine if the Warriors were to add a player who could get a bunch of offensive rebounds without hurting their initial offense. Someone like Steven Adams, who led the league in offensive rebound percentage on missed 3s last season. OKC scored 17.9 second chance points per 100 possessions when Adams on the floor and 11.7 with him off the floor. As a team, OKC was 17th best in first chance points per 100 possessions and first in second chance points per 100 possessions. Their offensive rebounding turned a below average offense into the seventh best offense in the league
The fact that Golden State can put together a great offense and OKC can put together a good offense in a completely different manner shows that there isn’t one way to build a successful offense and that it should be based on your personnel. That being said, when you look below at the top 10 offenses in the last 17 years, none of them ranked higher than 9th and half were outside the top 20 in second chance points per 100 possessions. Since these are the top teams offensively, I think it’s fair to say that these are the teams for which offensive rebounding should be the most valuable. In theory they should be able to convert second chance opportunities at a higher rate than less efficient offenses.
|Team|Season|ORtg|First Chance Points per 100 Possessions (Season Rank)|Second Chance Points per 100 Possessions (Season Rank)| |—|—|—|—| |GSW|2016-17|116.0|103.5 (1)|12.5 (19)| |PHX|2009-10|115.6|101.1 (1)|14.5 (15)| |HOU|2017-18|115.4|103.6 (2)|11.8 (23)| |HOU|2016-17|115.1|100.9 (4)|14.2 (9)| |GSW|2015-16|114.6|102.4 (1)|12.2 (23)| |GSW|2017-18|114.4|104.0 (1)|10.4 (30)| |TOR|2017-18|114.4|101.1 (4)|13.3 (11)| |PHX|2006-07|114.3|102.3 (1)|12.0 (29)| |CLE|2016-17|114.1|102.2 (2)|11.9 (22)| |PHX|2004-05|114.0|99.5 (1)|14.5 (20)|
The narrative has been that teams are giving up offensive rebounding to get back on defense and help shut down transition opportunities. While that may be a factor, we can’t discount the fact that bigs who can stretch the floor with their three point shooting, the types of players who can play large role in improving offensive efficiency, are also the types of players who will hurt your offensive rebounding. Players who, in the past, would spend most of their time near the basket are now spending time out at the three point line, and it’s hard to get rebounds when you are at the three point line. This doesn’t mean offensive rebounding isn’t valuable, it just means there are some trade-offs that need to be considered.
With the rule change to reset the shot clock to 14 seconds after offensive rebounds expected to be passed, these are some stats I’m going to keep an eye on this season. Given that it would make offensive rebounding less valuable, and the Warriors already don’t benefit much from offensive rebounding, it’s a rule change that could benefit the Warriors in a small way.