Leverage Stats on pbpstats.com

 Posted on December 22, 2020  |  6 minutes  |  Darryl Blackport

TLDR: Leverage stats on pbpstats.com group stats based on how each much possession impacts win probability. Typically when looking at clutch stats in NBA analysis we just do filters based on score margin and time remaining. There is a sizeable difference in win probability between being down 5 with 4 minutes left and down 1 with 4 minutes left. Your percentage chance of winning a game when down 5 with 45 seconds left are in the single digits so lumping this possession with a possession in a tie game with 45 seconds left doesn’t make much sense to me. [Read More]
Basketball  pbpstats 

What I Read or Listened to This Week

 Posted on November 1, 2020  |  1 minutes  |  Darryl Blackport

Here is some non-basketball content I read or listened to this week that I found interesting: Music industry forces widely used journalist tool offline How the experts messed up on Covid - “part of being an expert is knowing when to be uncertain, and being strongly aware of the provisional nature of our knowledge. Trustworthiness doesn’t just come from being right, but from communicating the limits of the evidence, and regularly updating one’s view in light of new data and analysis. [Read More]
Reading 

Don't Instantly Dismiss Unconventional Decisions Made By People Smarter Than You

 Posted on October 30, 2020  |  3 minutes  |  Darryl Blackport

In game 6 of the World Series Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash pulled starter Blake Snell with one out in the 6th inning after giving up only 2 hits and striking out 9 while throwing only throwing 73 pitches. It was instantly met with criticism, which only grew louder after the Rays gave up the lead two batters later. The conventional wisdom is that when your starting pitcher is rolling and he’s only thrown 73 pitches you should leave him in no questions asked. [Read More]

What I Read or Listened to This Week

 Posted on October 25, 2020  |  1 minutes  |  Darryl Blackport

Here is some non-basketball content I read or listened to this week that I found interesting:

Reading 

What I Read or Listened to This Week

 Posted on October 11, 2020  |  1 minutes  |  Darryl Blackport

Here is some non-basketball content I read or listened to this week that I found interesting:

Reading 

Some Quick Thoughts On Final Shots in Tie Games in the NBA

 Posted on September 16, 2020  |  5 minutes  |  Darryl Blackport

There have been multiple games recently in which a team could hold the ball for the final shot in a tie game. Both the Celtics in game 1 against Miami and the Raptors in game 6 against Boston shot a pull-up 3 in these spots. These were heavily criticized by lots of people. I think that criticism comes from a place of not understanding the reality of both how hard it is to score in these spots and what the proper strategy should be in these spots. [Read More]
Basketball 

Pesticides, Developing Resistance and the NBA

 Posted on September 14, 2020  |  4 minutes  |  Darryl Blackport

I recently finished reading Merchants of Doubt and one of the chapters focused on the attacks on Rachel Carson and her book Silent Spring, which warned of the dangers of pesticides such as DDT back in 1962. The attacks claim that her role in the ban of DDT prevented malaria control which could have saved millions of lives. This claim is not warranted, in part, because at the time DDT was banned it was already becoming less effective at killing mosquitoes because they developed a resistance to DDT. [Read More]
Basketball